976
ACUS03 KWNS 241929
SWODY3
SPC AC 241928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG STORMS IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE
CONDITIONAL.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST WHILE A
BROADER UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR WEST ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WARM-AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, WHERE ADEQUATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
A CLUSTER OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (I.E. 12Z SUNDAY), PRECEDED BY MID TO
UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH A DEPARTING 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AMID 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AND MODESTLY SIZED/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (AROUND
200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) WILL PRECEDE THE ONGOING STORMS, SUPPORTING
AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST/TORNADO THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
WARRANTING CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES. SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OF THE FREE WARM SECTOR IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE INITIAL
ROUND OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL MS INTO
FAR EASTERN LA. SHOULD DIURNAL HEATING BECOME ABUNDANT (WHICH IS
HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THE MOMENT), RELATIVELY ROBUST INITIATION OF
NEW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. EVEN SO, THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL JET TO
THE EAST SUGGESTS THAT ANY MATERIALIZING SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ISOLATED, WITH A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT,
THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/24/2025
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