719
ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN MONDAY AS A SECOND UPSTREAM TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY JET
STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS. TO THE EAST, A BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER NEW ENGLAND AS TROUGHING CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THIS WILL FAVOR A STRONG AND MOSTLY ZONAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG A
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST WILL BEGIN MOVING
SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
..SOUTHERN GA INTO FL
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY, LIMITING
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND REINFORCING THE SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE
FRONT. WHILE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT, THE INCREASINGLY MUTED
BUOYANCY SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION.
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WHERE ENHANCED WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AMID TYPICALLY
MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM), LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND EVENTUAL
UNDERCUTTING BY THE SAGGING COLD FRONT LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK MONDAY.
..LYONS.. 10/25/2025
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