812
ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH AREAS OF DAMAGING GUSTS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY, BRINGING COOLING ALOFT AS WELL AS 35-45
KT MIDLEVEL WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST FROM LA INTO
SOUTHERN MS DURING THE DAY, WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HIGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD, WITH
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR REMAINING OVER GA/NORTHERN FL/AL WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, A SMALL WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW IN LA, AND INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
LATE.
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR-SATURATED
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. STILL, 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE
PRESENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE
LARGE AMOUNT OF STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS, AND MAY OVERTURN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS AS THEY
BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT BEFORE CROSSING INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.
..JEWELL.. 10/25/2025
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