909
ACUS03 KWNS 251931
SWODY3
SPC AC 251930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY,
WITH MINIMAL SEVERE STORM RISK.
..DISCUSSION
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF ACROSS NORTHERN FL. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WITH PERHAPS
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STRONG HIGH LEVEL
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THIS WAVE, WINDS BELOW 700 MB ARE FORECAST TO
BE WEAK. ELEVATED STORMS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF BOUNDARY EARLY, WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MARGINAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST MINIMAL SEVERE RISK, BUT
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH AN INTENSE SPEED MAX AND COOLING
ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
LIFT ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL FAVOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DUE TO SUCH COLD PROFILES ALOFT.
..JEWELL.. 10/25/2025
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