458
ACUS02 KWNS 260553
SWODY2
SPC AC 260551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO SEVERE STORM RISK IS
EXPECTED.
..SYNOPSIS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US MONDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH, A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
NEAR THE GULF COAST. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A SEASONABLY
MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG) IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTH GA INTO NORTHERN FL. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD, NUMEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF IT. PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED AND WITH WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT, SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE MONDAY. WITH AN INTENSE SPEED MAX AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO SUCH COLD PROFILES ALOFT, BUT
MINIMAL MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT.
..LYONS.. 10/26/2025
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