955
ACUS03 KWNS 260728
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EASTWARD, SETTLING OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY AS IT MERGES WITH A BROADER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
US. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH, AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE RED RIVER WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AS IT MATURES
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. WEAK BUOYANCY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVERLAP THE MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS. WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TX, RAPID
UNDERCUTTING AND LIMITED BUOYANCY SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE
RISK. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF FL AND THE OUTER BANKS. THE LIMITED OVERLAP
OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE RISK THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
..LYONS.. 10/26/2025
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