751
ACUS03 KWNS 261927
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
ON TUESDAY, AN INTENSE SPEED MAX WILL DIVE INTO THE PLAINS, WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 00Z INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, NEARING THE TX COAST BY 00Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRIEFLY RESULT IN A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TX DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE SHALLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR, EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX.
AS SUCH, THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE TX COAST, PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING
OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERALLY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH MAY TEMPER STORM
SEVERITY. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF LA, AR, AND MS, WITH SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN OVER EASTERN NC AS A
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH MOIST EASTERLY WINDS
WRAPPING MOISTURE WESTWARD NORTH OF AN OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW.
..JEWELL.. 10/26/2025
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