093
ACUS02 KWNS 270556
SWODY2
SPC AC 270555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST TUESDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THESE UPPER-LEVEL
FEATURES INTENSIFY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT TO THE SURFACE LOW, A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US, REACHING THE
GULF COAST BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL BRIEFLY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM EAST TX TO SOUTHERN MO. AS COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS, WEAK
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHERN MO, INTO AR AND EAST TX AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW
OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. THIS, ALONG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
BUOYANCY (MUCAPE 500 J/KG OR LESS) AND STORM INTENSITY.
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST TX WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEEPER. AN ISOLATED STRONG GUST OR SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ROBUST STORMS ABLE TO PERSIST.
HOWEVER, POOR LAPSE RATES AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
UNDERCUT CONVECTION SUGGESTS THIS RISK WILL BE LIMITED.
ELSEWHERE, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN OVER THE NC OUTER BANKS
AS A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOIST EASTERLY
WINDS WRAPPING MOISTURE WESTWARD NORTH OF AN OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER,
SOME INLAND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..LYONS.. 10/27/2025
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