777
ACUS02 KWNS 271711
SWODY2
SPC AC 271709
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TUESDAY. SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE KS/OK REGION DURING THE
DAY, WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AR. A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN TX, WITH A INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS AR AND MO WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500
J/KG. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP, BUT FAVORABLE LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INSTIGATE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS AFTER 21Z
FROM NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN TX.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS, AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR CELLULAR STORM MODE. STORMS WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING
SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM
THE UPPER TX COAST INTO PERHAPS CENTRAL LA.
..JEWELL.. 10/27/2025
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