819
ACUS02 KWNS 280558
SWODY2
SPC AC 280556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN EMBEDDED MID/UPPER CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
NEAR THE AR/MO/TN BORDER REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF GA AND THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
..PARTS OF GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE DURING
THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A WEAKLY CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND (WITH LITTLE OR NO
LIGHTNING) MAY DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FROM GA
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND THE
FRONT ENCOUNTERS VERY MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY (WITH MUCAPE LIKELY
NEAR OR BELOW 100 J/KG). GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL
BAND AS LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS, THOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SEVERE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHAT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F) MAY SPREAD ACROSS
COASTAL NC, AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
SECONDARY SURFACE-LOW DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY
LIMIT BUOYANCY, BUT ISOLATED AND AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED CELLS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
ORGANIZED-SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER NORTH, SPORADIC LIGHTNING FLASHES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..DEAN.. 10/28/2025
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