940
ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY, AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET MAXIMUM DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY, AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
..EASTERN NC INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING FROM EASTERN NC INTO PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE AT LEAST LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS MAY ADVANCE INLAND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO DESTABILIZATION (SUCH AS THE NAM/RRFS) WOULD SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTS VERY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION, AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 10/28/2025
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