928
ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
..SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC
A DEEPENING UPPER CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND APPROACH THE ATLANTIC COAST, ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE,
WITH A 500 MB JET STREAK NEAR 90-110 KT. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EAST, A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP EAST ACROSS AL/GA THROUGH 06Z. A WEDGE FRONT ALONG/EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. MEAGER MUCAPE WILL SUPPORT
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT, WITH LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF AL/GA/NORTHERN FL/SC WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND VERY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER VA/NC AND THE WEDGE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
VICINITY. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A NARROW WARM SECTOR AND LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS NORTHEAST NC/SOUTHEAST VA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN
POOR, BUT 40-50 KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AMID
LOW-TOPPED/WEAK CONVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS BEEN
INCLUDED WITH THE DAY 2 UPDATE.
..LEITMAN.. 10/28/2025
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