294
ACUS03 KWNS 281901
SWODY3
SPC AC 281900
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
..SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT UPPER CYCLONE WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON
THURSDAY. A COASTAL SURFACE LOW, INITIALLY OVER VA, WILL DEEPEN AS
IT LIKEWISE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL OVERLAP PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AND MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS NEAR COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST.
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN POOR, WITH
VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850 MB ATOP A COOLER LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER, FURTHER
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGER
WINDS NEAR THE 925-850 MB LAYER. WHILE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, POOR THERMODYNAMICS WILL PRECLUDE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN.. 10/28/2025
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