834
ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NC
INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
..COASTAL NC INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PARTS OF COASTAL NC INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC, MAINLY FOR A CONTINUATION OF A THREAT THAT MAY DEVELOP
LATE D1/WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, REACHING PARTS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM PARTS OF
VA/MD TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC, AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING FROM COASTAL NC
INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A FAVORABLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS COASTAL NC AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA, WHICH
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS. A RELATIVELY
NARROW WARM SECTOR (CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS) WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC, IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. MUTED DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION,
THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED GUSTS WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA AND
VICINITY IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, BUT GUIDANCE VARIES
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IN THIS AREA.
..DEAN.. 10/29/2025
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