558
FNUS21 KWNS 291646
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH TEXAS
..SOUTH TEXAS
ROBUST POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15% WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE FUELS REMAIN DRY AND MOST RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE
SPREAD.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRY OFFSHORE WIND EVENT
CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALREADY BELOW
10% IN MANY LOCATIONS AFTER VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN
FAVORED TERRAIN THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN L.A./EASTERN VENTURA COUNTIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE SANTA MONICA RANGE WAS MADE GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/29/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0107 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
WITH AN UPPER LOW INTENSIFYING IN THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY, A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK. IN THE WEST, AN INITIALLY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
..SOUTH TEXAS
STRONG SURFACE WINDS (15-25 MPH) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET MAINTAINING INTENSITY INTO PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HOW
LOW RH WILL FALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT 15-25% IS THE
CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE. DRY FINE FUELS (WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOADING)
WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER APPEARS PROBABLE AS THE
TYPICALLY WIND-PRONE AREAS OF LA/VENTURA COUNTIES MAINTAIN 15-20 MPH
(LOCALLY HIGHER) WINDS. RH WILL LIKELY STILL BE LOW AT 15-20% AS
WELL. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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