829
ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY FROM COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL PULL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
A LINE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS, WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP, POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS FAR NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FAR
WESTERN MARYLAND. HAVE MODIFIED THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MARGINAL
RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED WESTERN/NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO.
..WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SOME ISOLATED HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THUS THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, IF SOME CLEARING/GREATER INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS TREND
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL HAIL PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.
..BENTLEY.. 10/29/2025
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