318
ACUS03 KWNS 300701
SWODY3
SPC AC 300700
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
..SYNOPSIS
A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST AND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, WHERE THE SOUTHERNMOST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
IMPINGE ON MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, RESULTING IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
..TX GULF COAST INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF INLAND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE, WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS NEAR A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT,
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. OTHER GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH INLAND MOISTURE RETURN, KEEPING
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSHORE.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
TOO HIGH FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 10/30/2025
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