802
ACUS03 KWNS 011909
SWODY3
SPC AC 011908
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
.. DISCUSSION
AS A MIDLEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY, TWO
DISTINCT REGIONS MAY EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
DAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE STRONG
ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR BELT TO THE NORTHWEST OF A COASTAL
LOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE US BEFORE THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE SECOND POTENTIAL AREA WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LOW. THIS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL
ON THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW. GLOBAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HINT AT A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK INSTABILITY
AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM, HOWEVER,
IS FASTER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MIDLEVEL LOW, RESULTING IN DRIER
LOW LEVELS, LITTLE-TO-ANY INSTABILITY, AND A DRIER FORECAST. GIVEN
THE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES, WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM AREAS HERE,
ALTHOUGH WILL BRING THEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.
..MARSH.. 11/01/2025
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