377
ACUS48 KWNS 030949
SWOD48
SPC AC 030948
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON NOV 03 2025
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
..THURSDAY/DAY 4 TO SATURDAY/DAY 6
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST
TO BE LIMITED. IN SPITE OF THIS, WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. ANY
SEVERE THREAT ON THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY.
ON SATURDAY, A LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MOIST AIRMASS, IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT, AND WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY, WHICH WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. AT THIS TIME, WILL CONTINUE
"PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" FOR SATURDAY.
..SUNDAY/DAY 7 AND MONDAY/DAY 8
ON SUNDAY, THE LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM GEORGIA
NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS
RANGE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES.. 11/03/2025
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