367
ACUS03 KWNS 040741
SWODY3
SPC AC 040740
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CST TUE NOV 04 2025
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH LOW-PROBABILITY HIGHLIGHTS OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND MIDWEST.
A DAMPENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCANT BUOYANCY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM,
NON-NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR ON
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD YIELD SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE LOWER
MO/MID-MS VALLEYS. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE TRAILING/SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN EMERGING RAIN SWATH.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ON THURSDAY MORNING, THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EAST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND IMPINGE ON THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP APPEARS MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY LIMITED
RELATIVE TO THE D2 MRGL THREAT, WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY LARGELY PROGGED WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG.
..GRAMS.. 11/04/2025
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