435
ACUS48 KWNS 060920
SWOD48
SPC AC 060918
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST THU NOV 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ON D4/SUNDAY ALONG THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH THAT COMMENCES ON D3/SATURDAY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LARGELY OFFSHORE OUTSIDE OF THE
FL PENINSULA. WHILE THE BULK OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW AMPLIFICATION WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT WITH AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UPWARD WITH THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WHILE OTHERS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THIS REGION AMID LOW
RH/WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS. AT THIS JUNCTURE, SEVERE
PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 5 BUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST BY D5/MONDAY AND A
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE GULF, SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MINIMAL EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
..GRAMS.. 11/06/2025
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