160
FNUS21 KWNS 061652
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST THU NOV 06 2025
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INITIAL SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WY/NE PANHANDLE WILL SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NE THROUGH TODAY. ALTHOUGH
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED (20-25% THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON), WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG
WITH DRY FUELS (ERC VALUES NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE) SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT, ROBUST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD ENHANCE
DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES, DESPITE CLOUD COVER, WILL PROMOTE LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT VALUES ALREADY
BELOW 15% ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BROAD LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS UNDER
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL REDUCE FULL HEATING
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, A SHALLOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION
ACROSS EASTERN NM/WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ERODE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BY THE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN
THE 15-20% RANGE AMID POCKETS OF DRIER FUELS AND CURED GRASSES
SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
..WILLIAMS.. 11/06/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1133 PM CST WED NOV 05 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A
WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST. MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
CROSS-DIVIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF 15-20 MPH
WINDS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS.
RH COULD FALL BELOW 15% IN SOME AREAS, BUT 15-20% WILL OCCUR MORE
BROADLY. PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS 20 MPH WINDS ARE MORE PROBABLE HERE. OVERALL,
THOUGH, ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN
LIMITED FUEL RECEPTIVENESS REGION WIDE.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DIVIDE IN
COLORADO/WYOMING. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL LOWER RH TO AROUND 15-20%
IN MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THERE WILL REACH 15-20 MPH
(LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE TERRAIN GAPS). RH IN WYOMING IS NOT LIKELY TO
FALL TO ELEVATED CRITERIA GIVEN THE UNMODIFIED COOLER AIR. PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE BREEZY (AROUND 20 MPH) ALONG WITH RH
OF 20-25%. DRYING FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
..MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DRY, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AGAIN OCCUR WITHIN THE REGION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT 25-30% RH AND 10-15 MPH WINDS COULD OCCUR AT LEAST
LOCALLY. DRY FUELS WOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE OCCURRENCE/DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS REMAINS
HIGH GIVEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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