389
ACUS02 KWNS 081730
SWODY2
SPC AC 081728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SAT NOV 08 2025
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
FL/SOUTH GA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE
EXPECTED HAZARDS.
..SYNOPSIS
FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF AN ALREADY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY,
WHILE A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
LEADING SHORTWAVE AND MOVE FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST, AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST.
..CENTRAL FL INTO SOUTHEAST VA
MODEST DESTABILIZATION (WITH MLCAPE OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG) IS
EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF GA
AND THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY SPARSE WITH STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR, LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEING
DISPLACED TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT CAN BE
SUSTAINED WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE STRONGEST RELATIVE SIGNAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FROM SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE GREATER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..OH/PA/WV VICINITY
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OH, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z), BUT LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THIS CONVECTION
MOVES INTO PARTS OF WV AND WESTERN PA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION,
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NY,
AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS MUCAPE IN THE 100-200 J/KG
RANGE IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (GENERALLY 25-35 KT
AT 850 MB), WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, IF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, THEN CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT.
..DEAN.. 11/08/2025
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