151
ACUS48 KWNS 100848
SWOD48
SPC AC 100846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE WEEK,
WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS REACHING THE TX GULF COAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL TO
MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
D4/THURSDAY IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE EC, GFS, AND CMC HAVE CONVERGED TO GREATER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
REMAINS POOR. IN ADDITION, DIFFERING SCENARIOS IN OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS A MUCH SLOWER CUTOFF LOW IN THE EC-AI, ALONG WITH A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD ACROSS THE GEFS/ECENS, ALL SUGGEST A FAIRLY
UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN CONTINUES. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY WPC'S
LATEST EPD MENTION OF WELL BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
WEEKEND'S FORECAST.
..GRAMS.. 11/10/2025
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