738
ACUS48 KWNS 110921
SWOD48
SPC AC 110919
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION
BULK OF GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT
EC-AIFS WITH A CUTOFF CLOSED LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CA ON D5/SATURDAY.
THE EC-AIFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE DAMPENED WITH THE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PROGRESS IT INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES.
A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD REACH THE TX GULF COAST BY LATE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A RESUMPTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AFTER BEING NEGLIGIBLE IN PRECEDING DAYS.
STILL, THE QUARTET OF LATEST GEFS-SPC/NSSL AND YESTERDAY'S ECENS-AI
NCAR PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE EACH HOLDING AT LESS THAN 15
PERCENT. IF THE REST OF GUIDANCE FURTHER FOLLOWS RECENT EC-AIFS
TRENDS, SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY REMAIN MARGINAL AND/OR
MESOSCALE-FOCUSED ON D6-7/SUNDAY-MONDAY.
GIVEN SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS D8/TUESDAY AND LACK OF FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF WITH THE LEAD WAVE, ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
..GRAMS.. 11/11/2025
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