834
ACUS48 KWNS 120859
SWOD48
SPC AC 120857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
..LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY ON D4/SATURDAY
AMPLIFICATION OF A NEGATIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS PROBABLE
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. WITHIN THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET, CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING
ALONG A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH
ONLY MODIFIED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MLCAPE SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED AND SPATIALLY CONFINED. BUT A
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH PRONOUNCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES ON D6-8/MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT
EC-AIFS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S EC-AIFS, THIS SHOULD
BECOME AN OPEN BUT COMPACT WAVE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE MAY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE, RENDERING AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
THIS WAVE MAY LARGELY DAMPEN INTO TUESDAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
EC-AIFS INDICATING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE GULF INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY, IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE
EC-AIFS HINTS AT ANOTHER POTENTIAL CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW SITUATION,
ALBEIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR WAVE. WITH THE GFS ALSO
SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO, SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN MIGHT
REMAIN MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO TX. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO OTHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE INTERACTING WITH THE
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
..GRAMS.. 11/12/2025
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