717
ACUS03 KWNS 121856
SWODY3
SPC AC 121856
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
AS BLOCKING MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHEASTERN GREENLAND, MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC REGIME
WILL BE MAINTAINED TO ITS SOUTHWEST, CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH AMERICAN ATLANTIC
COAST IS FORECAST, DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED CYCLONE MIGRATING NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME.
UPSTREAM, RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY
TO SPREAD ACROSS AND INLAND OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ADJACENT PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, TO THE NORTH OF AN INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MODIFYING MID-LEVEL COLD CORE (INCLUDING
COLDEST 500 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE -24 C) WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, TENDING TO PIVOT AWAY FROM
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS WHILE PERHAPS SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE A CORRIDOR OF CONTINUED
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG A SLOW MOVING, OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE
MAY COMPENSATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO LAYERS OF WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY INLAND OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL INTO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA/MOJAVE DESERT VICINITY, 10 PERCENT OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED OFFSHORE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MIGHT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSEST TO COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/12/2025
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