685
ACUS01 KWNS 131244
SWODY1
SPC AC 131243
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EVIDENT TODAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST.
..SYNOPSIS
A CYCLONE, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CA COAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CA AND
OR. MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS MOIST PLUME,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING FLASHES. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN
PLACE, BUT THE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF ANY DEEPER
UPDRAFTS WILL LIMIT ITS EFFICACY.
FARTHER EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS, PROMOTING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. SOME MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEGLIGIBLE FORCING WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..MOSIER.. 11/13/2025
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