890
ACUS01 KWNS 131623
SWODY1
SPC AC 131621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EVIDENT TODAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST.
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST REGION TODAY. AN EMBEDDED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF
THE NORTHERN CA COAST. THE LOW/MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF CA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK BUOYANCY (MUCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG) WITHIN THIS MOIST
PLUME WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/SPORADIC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG INTO THIS AFTERNOON, NEGLIGIBLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY
AUGMENTED GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE, COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH THE GREATEST RELATIVE LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SOME ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
MO/IL, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MODEST 850 MB MOISTURE
RETURN, BUT THERE IS MINIMAL SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..DEAN.. 11/13/2025
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