702
ACUS03 KWNS 140645
SWODY3
SPC AC 140644
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COUPLED WITH MOISTENING MIDLEVELS AND COOLING
ALOFT, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY AND A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO KS
WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME/INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN 10 PERCENT COVERAGE BEFORE 12Z MONDAY IS LOW.
..LEITMAN.. 11/14/2025
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