559
ACUS48 KWNS 140808
SWOD48
SPC AC 140807
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH IN THE DAY 4-5/MON-TUE TIME
PERIOD. SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
NONETHELESS, AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS/OK
TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT, MODEST GULF
MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THROUGH CONFIDENCE IN 15 PERCENT COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE
WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND LACK OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE.
DURING THE DAY 6-8 PERIOD, FORECAST MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER, A GENERAL TREND INDICATING A DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS APPARENT. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE AND ANY DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT GULF RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP. LARGE SPREAD AND POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG VARIOUS GUIDANCE PRECLUDES
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 11/14/2025
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