553
ACUS11 KWNS 152314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152314
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-160145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152314Z - 160145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE NON-SEVERE, BUT ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OH. DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS RESULTED
IN A PLUME OF 50S F DEWPOINTS, WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY DUE TO COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST, EVENTUAL COOLING ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DUE TO STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. SUFFICIENT
LARGE-SCALE LIFT OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY THEN YIELD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OH INTO PA AND
VICINITY. DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OF 40+ KT
MAY YIELD LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WITH ANY DOWNDRAFTS.
..JEWELL/HART.. 11/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39258237 39848277 41548087 42138004 42607899 42507817
41557815 39807926 39528015 39258237
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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