012
ACUS03 KWNS 171925
SWODY3
SPC AC 171924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
ON WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. A LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND START TO EMERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY 00Z, THE PRIMARY
TROUGH WILL START TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING EAST, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ABOVE A SURFACE FRONT. THIS INCREASING FORCING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z, SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO THE RED RIVER FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE OVERNIGHT
TIMING, SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
..BENTLEY.. 11/17/2025
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