470
ACUS03 KWNS 180758
SWODY3
SPC AC 180758
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND INTO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER AZ AND NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL PIVOT
EAST/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE WITH
TIME/EASTWARD EXTENT. REGARDLESS, INCREASING ASCENT AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TX/OK AND
THE OZARK PLATEAU.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND RESULT IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. SOME STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS MODEST SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, TRAINING/HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION OF THE
WARM SECTOR, WILL HOLD OFF DELINEATING ANY LOW-END SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WHERE ANY RELATIVELY
GREATER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP.
..LEITMAN.. 11/18/2025
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