024
ACUS02 KWNS 181718
SWODY2
SPC AC 181717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
(WEDNESDAY), WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE MODEST LEE TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH, WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN
TO THE FOUR CORNERS, FOSTERING WEAK BUOYANCY AMID STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO
THE WEST, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS, WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, A LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A 25-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX. UPPER SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST AT BEST THROUGH AT LEAST THE 00Z PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH ROUGHLY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL TX. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOIST
AXIS, RESULTING IN OVER 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AMID ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELLULAR OR EVEN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/18/2025
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