777
ACUS02 KWNS 191724
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW (THURSDAY). AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF SEVERE WIND, HAIL,
OR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.
TOMORROW (THURSDAY) WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ONE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
SUPPORTING ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES. A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY, ENCOURAGING A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD FLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AMID A WARM-AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DESPITE
EXPECTED MEAGER INSTABILITY, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY
PROLONGED LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME, WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z THURSDAY),
FROM CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK. GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND MEDIOCRE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUOYANCY SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK
INITIALLY. HOWEVER, WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
(ALBEIT MODEST), SHOULD HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL, SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR COMPARED TO
EARLIER GUIDANCE MEMBERS. AS SUCH, CONSIDERABLE SIZE/ELONGATION OF
THE HODOGRAPHS WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR,
WITH SOME BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN TX INTO OK. WHILE THIS SHEAR PROFILE WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL, THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS,
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS, AND POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES (AND
RESULTANT BUOYANCY) SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
WITHIN A CONFLUENCE AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, BEFORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENCOURAGES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS. DISCRETE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN TX
TO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. SINCE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WILL
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER DARK.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/19/2025
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