821
ACUS01 KWNS 192002
SWODY1
SPC AC 192001
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. IN PARTS OF NORTH TX, THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING INITIAL SIGNS OF DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
IN THE VICINITY OF AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE GENERAL AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND
AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH (AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WOULD
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO IF STORMS CAN INITIATE.
HOWEVER, WEAK/MINIMAL FORCING FOR ASCENT (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE) LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE OF
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALITY, HELD
OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME, THOUGH A LOCALLY
FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
..WEINMAN.. 11/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1030 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025/
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS
A LOW-LATITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND VICINITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS WILL GENERALLY NOT REACH
THESE LOCALES UNTIL TONIGHT. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT. WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEBULOUS FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY CASTS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS MAY ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG/NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES, WITH MODESTLY
STEEPENED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THIS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR GIVEN THE ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SHOULD
PROMOTE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS TO
DEVELOP AND POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. WHERE
CONVECTION CAN REMAIN SURFACE-BASED THIS EVENING, SOME THREAT FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO SHOULD ALSO
EXIST, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD IS UNCERTAIN. WITH TIME,
UPDRAFT INTERACTIONS/MERGERS SHOULD RESULT IN A MESSY CONVECTIVE
MODE, ESPECIALLY WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. STILL, AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. COOLING ALOFT AND CLOUD
BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
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