661
ACUS11 KWNS 202334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202334
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 202334Z - 210200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND VICINITY THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ALONG WITH HAIL
OVER 1.00" DIAMETER MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIR MASS OVER EASTERN
TX, EAST OF A COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR
WITH LITTLE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS UP TO
850 MB AS WELL, WHERE SPEEDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT.
WHILE COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE AREA, THE PRIMARY
TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OK, WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL WARMING TO THE SOUTH. EAST OF THIS
WAVE, HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER NEUTRAL.
STILL, MODERATE MID AND HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE RESULTING IN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THESE ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS OFF THE COLD FRONT.
AREAS OF STRONGER CELLS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM ELLIS COUNTY INTO
LIMESTONE/FALLS COUNTIES. THE ELLIS COUNTY COMPLEX IS NEAR THE WARM
FRONT, AND MAY PERSIST AS IT RIDES ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WITH
ENHANCED ASCENT AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 11/20/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 31239705 31899674 32489667 32799671 34059540 34309470
34179418 33699391 32329453 31789515 31419600 31239705
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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