662
ACUS02 KWNS 210652
SWODY2
SPC AC 210651
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
..DISCUSSION
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROADER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL START TO BECOME A MORE BROAD/OPEN
WAVE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WHERE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
PRESENT. HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE WEAK AMID NEGLIGIBLE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT.
AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A LOCALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL HAIL
MAY DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET STREAK. A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
FOR SUPERCELLS. SMALL HAIL APPEARS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT IF
GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
..BENTLEY.. 11/21/2025
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