482
ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN/KY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
..MS/AL/TN/KY
A STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OCCUR REGIONALLY IN TANDEM
WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT, WITH HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING LIMITED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
THE MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FOCUSED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA. ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THESE STORMS, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR WHILE DESTABILIZATION WILL
STILL REMAIN WEAKER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK, SUGGESTING MOST UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER,
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR, COULD SUPPORT A
COUPLE OF ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO UPTICK
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INCLUDING WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BY THIS
TIME, REDUCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. NEVERTHELESS, A LOW RISK OF A
TORNADO AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST.
..GUYER/KERR.. 11/21/2025
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