676
ACUS03 KWNS 230828
SWODY3
SPC AC 230827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY
WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND CROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
..SOUTHEAST
MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. MINIMAL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, INITIALLY ACROSS MS/TN/AL
DURING THE MORNING, WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND IS FORECAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY 00Z. IF THIS OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREFORE, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN BY LATE
EVENING DUE TO THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
..SOUTH TEXAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL FEATURE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. UPPER FORCING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 11/23/2025
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