467
ACUS03 KWNS 231916
SWODY3
SPC AC 231915
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL
FURTHER DAMPEN, DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SHARPEN/ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
..DEEP SOUTH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE OH TO TN VALLEYS AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL YIELD DECREASING
SPEEDS AND MORE VEERED PROFILES BY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY
REMAINING WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR A
GREATER THAN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS NEBULOUS.
A PLUME OF MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS LA/SOUTHERN MS,
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF AL BY AFTERNOON, AND HOLD AT
WEAK FARTHER NORTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, BUT THE SUBSIDING FLOW FIELDS WITH RESPECT
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
SUSTAINED/PRODUCTIVE STORMS MAY BE. INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, BUT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER NEAR THE AL/FL/GA
BORDER AREA WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ACCELERATING FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 11/23/2025
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