058
ACUS11 KWNS 240644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240643
TXZ000-240915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240643Z - 240915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS ALONG AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WITHIN THIS AIRMASS, THE RAP SHOWS MLCAPE
IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BOTH GRADUALLY
INCREASE. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT SAN ANGELO HAS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR
55 KNOTS WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT SAN ANGELO HAVE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING
ANY HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL OVERNIGHT.
..BROYLES/HART.. 11/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32100067 31330170 30840225 30410219 30320181 30310060
30579960 30939896 31539840 31919822 32249828 32409848
32559912 32499978 32100067
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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