010
ACUS48 KWNS 240906
SWOD48
SPC AC 240905
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A COOL, DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW ACROSS TEXAS MAY LEAD TO
SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAY6/SATURDAY TO DAY8/MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE WARM SECTOR EXPANDS ACROSS TEXAS
AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. EVOLUTION
OF THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS, AIGFS, AND
EC-AIFS ALL SUGGEST A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH A DEEPER
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST AN END TO SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BY MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST ONCE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, THE CONSENSUS PATTERN FOR A SLOWER, MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH SEEMS MOST LIKELY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT PREVIOUS
12Z AND 00Z ECMWF MODEL RUNS PREFERRED THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PREFERRED PATTERN,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND TIMING
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 11/24/2025
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