788
ACUS11 KWNS 241621
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241620
TXZ000-241745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INTO AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241620Z - 241745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND WITHIN THE FREE WARM SECTOR. THE
16Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER FAR
WEST TX, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING UPPER-SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
ADEQUATE INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARMING INTO THE 70S F, WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TX. CURRENTLY, MLCAPE WEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO
IS REACHING THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS, AS 7+
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE PLUME (I.E. THE WARM FRONT), AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING WARM SECTOR STORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION,
ASSUMING THEY DO NOT OUTPACE THE BETTER MOISTURE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS
THAT CAN PARALLEL THE WARM-FRONTAL REGIME. IT IS UNCLEAR PRECISELY
WHEN STORMS WILL PEAK IN SEVERITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE TRENDS, A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED.
..SQUITIERI/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29719760 30999708 31519598 31629507 31559422 31349373
31109358 30769366 30319382 29959434 29529515 29309583
29139644 29109694 29189720 29719760
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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