472
ACUS11 KWNS 241908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241907
LAZ000-TXZ000-242030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 638...
VALID 241907Z - 242030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 638 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING STORMS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE PERCOLATED IN INTENSITY ALONG
A CONFLUENCE BAND WITHIN THE FREE WARM SECTOR, AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE STORMS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
WELL INTO THE 70S F (NEAR 80 F IN THE HOUSTON AREA), WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F NOTED. HOWEVER, REGIONAL VADS HAVE
SHOWN RELATIVELY SHORT HODOGRAPHS WITH MODEST CURVATURE, WHICH MAY
BE LIMITING TORNADO POTENTIAL UP TO THIS POINT. NONETHELESS, AN
UPTICK IN TORNADO DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. A PARTICULAR REGION OF CONCERN WOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA, WHERE REGIONAL/TERMINAL RADAR DATA SHOWS
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SUPERCELL AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, WITH A 30+ KT ROTATIONAL VELOCITY NOTED WITH THE 1903Z 0.5
DEGREE KHGX VELOCITY SCAN.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 29659616 29759624 29929622 30079617 30459610 31049608
31299616 31449620 31589622 31719622 31779620 31849612
32029562 32309498 32279492 32339432 32209370 31949336
31459333 30909363 30229396 29929437 29719496 29629548
29609576 29659616
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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