658
ACUS11 KWNS 250728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250728
MSZ000-LAZ000-250900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 639...640...
VALID 250728Z - 250900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 639, 640 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTED STORM CLUSTER
IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM LA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS. A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION, AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, WILL SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH A MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (GENERALLY
50-60 KT) WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE, WHILE ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS (WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
GREATER THAN 300 M2/S2 PER THE KDGX VWP) WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR LINE-EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS.
A TENDENCY FOR THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW TO SAG SOUTHEASTWARD MAY
CONTINUE TO TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN THE NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
WITH TIME. A POTENTIALLY SEVERE LINE SEGMENT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE LA/MS BORDER WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS IT MOVES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE. FARTHER NORTH/EAST, MARGINAL
SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY NORTH OF JACKSON, MS (AS OF 0725 UTC) COULD
POSE A TORNADO AND ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, IF THEY REMAIN IN
THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST OF WW 640, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE LOCAL
WATCH EXPANSION OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.
..DEAN/HART.. 11/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31689188 32869066 33128953 32958908 32588908 32288919
31658959 31389031 31259175 31689188
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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