465
ACUS11 KWNS 250943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250942
ALZ000-MSZ000-251115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640...
VALID 250942Z - 251115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 640 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...AN EARLIER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT HAS TAKEN ON A MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MS,
PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD. A SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE
SEGMENT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND MAY POSE AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM
TORNADO THREAT, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG) AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM SRH OF GREATER
THAN 300 M2/S2) AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, THE LARGER-SCALE QLCS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
FARTHER NORTH, A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AL, ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY THE
LARGER STORM CLUSTER. WHILE THIS LINE SEGMENT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SCANT SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, SOME
INCREASE IN MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME AS SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. WITH STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS LINE SEGMENT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE AS IT IMPINGES UPON INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT MID 60S F DEWPOINTS.
WHILE THE REMAINING SEVERE THREAT MAY TEND TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED
FOR DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE INTO PARTS OF AL.
..DEAN/HART.. 11/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32428715 32068831 31838978 32189016 32668936 33408801
34168771 34238738 34368663 33668661 32638695 32428715
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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