404
ACUS11 KWNS 290919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290918
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-291315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO...SOUTHEAST IA...WESTERN
IL
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 290918Z - 291315Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS SPREADING ACROSS PARTS
OF MO/IA AND WESTERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING, WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
REGION OF A SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST KS. STRONG, DEEP
ASCENT BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE (CURRENTLY
DRAPED FROM NEAR/NORTH OF ST. LOUIS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MO)
GENERALLY DELINEATES THE TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AT KIRKSVILLE (KIRK)
AND HANNIBAL (KHAE) IN NORTHEAST MO, WITH MODERATE SNOW OBSERVATIONS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL. SNOW RATES OF NEAR TO
LOCALLY ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR MAY PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO, SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS, BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WET SNOW FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES OF
NEAR/ABOVE 1 INCH/HOUR AND NOTABLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, THOUGH THE
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT ACTUAL ACCUMULATION RATES
TO SOME EXTENT. LATER THIS MORNING (GENERALLY AFTER SUNRISE), PARTS
OF EAST-CENTRAL MO MAY TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
..DEAN.. 11/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 38398984 38669113 39549204 40209267 41269249 41269153
40589027 39898960 39108933 38398984
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