282
ACUS03 KWNS 301922
SWODY3
SPC AC 301921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED.
..SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AS STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS A
MARGINALLY BUOYANT AIR MASS.
..FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE BY AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE BROADER REGION, A NARROW SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR MAY
MATERIALIZE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN
GA THROUGH 18 UTC. MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SBCAPE
VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 250-500 J/KG BEFORE AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
SHUNTS ANY SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY OFFSHORE BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON.
MORE BULLISH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP TO REALIZE THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD
MANIFEST AS THE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. EVEN THE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE RRFS DEPICTS ONLY A WEAK/TRANSIENT UPDRAFT/UH SIGNAL
ACROSS THIS REGION, SUGGESTING THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
LIMITED. WHILE RISK PROBABILITIES ARE WITHHELD, THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT.
..MOORE.. 11/30/2025
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